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Bitcoin continues to trend lower and may already be done with its recent pullback as it bounces off the mid-channel area of interest. In that case, price could head down to the next downside targets marked by the Fib extension tool.
Price is already closing in on the 38.2% extension at the $3,450 area but might still have room to dip lower to the 50% extension closer to the swing low. The 61.8% level lines up with the bottom of the channel while the 78.6% level is near $3,300. The full extension is all the way down to $3,235.
The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the downtrend is more likely to gain traction than to reverse. However, the gap between the two is narrowing to reflect slowing selling pressure. Price is still trading below both moving averages to signal bearish momentum.
Stochastic was previously on the move up but has since turned lower halfway through, suggesting that selling pressure might be returning. RSI is also on the move down to confirm that sellers still have the upper hand. If buyers are able to take over, bitcoin could pull past the mid-channel area of interest and climb to the top of the channel at $3,700.
Bitcoin appears to have drawn some support from news that Fidelity will launch its institutional platform in March but the anticipation was short-lived. Buyers were quick to book profits on recent rallies as there still might be some roadblocks or delays to this launch, which might then lead to another leg lower.
In any case, institutional investment is widely expected to spur strong gains for bitcoin and its peers, so traders would keep tabs on any big changes in volume as the launch draws near.
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