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“This Chart [May] Awaken Bitcoin (BTC) Bulls”
Analysis completed by Fundstrat technician Rob Sluymer, which was subsequently relayed through MarketWatch’s Aaron Hankin, indicates that the current Bitcoin (BTC) price chart entirely mirrors that seen in late-2014 and early-2015, this market’s last dismal bear market.
For those who aren’t in the loop, during late-2014 and early-2015, BTC saw a sharp sell-off after hitting quadruple-digits in late-2013 in an industry first. This infamous historic bear market, which was only exacerbated by the world-renowned $440 million Mt.Gox hack and subsequent fallout, saw altcoins, such as the now-near-deceased Feathercoin, lose 90%+ of their value, while BTC held relatively strong.
Still, the fact of the matter is during that period, which lasted for upwards of one year, BTC fell by 84%. And interestingly, while 2018’s bear era hasn’t lasted as long, Sluymer of Fundstrat Global Advisors, a Bitcoin-friendly, New York-based market research firm, recently drew lines between current and historical price levels.
More specifically, as depicted in the chart below, 2018’s and 2014/2015’s BTC decline didn’t only amount to ~85%, but just as BTC fell by 43% in the first two weeks of 2015, the asset fell by 45% from November 11th to the 25th. So, taking into account that in 2015, BTC saw a sharp drawdown before undergoing a monumental recovery, some believe that the short-term future is bright for the cryptocurrency market at large.
As many like to say, “markets rhyme not repeat.”
Sluymer, touching on the recent Bitcoin capitulation and 2015’s, wrote:
In contrast to bounces that have developed through 2018, weekly RSI [relative strength index] is now at levels not seen since BTC’s last bear market low in early 2015 and BTC is showing very early evidence of responding to its long-term uptrend after three major downside moves through 2018.
It isn’t clear if the cryptocurrency market is poised to bounce, but many bulls are surely awaiting such a bout of price action.
Not Everyone Is All Too Convinced
While Fundstrat’s astute analysis does hold value, many aren’t convinced that lines can be accurately drawn, as the Bitcoin industry has matured beyond measure in the past year alone, and even more so in the past four. Moreover, others have claimed that the worst has yet to come for crypto assets, with a multitude of analysts noting that lower lows are in Bitcoin’s cards.
Vinny Lingham, CEO of blockchain-centric identity ecosystem Civic, cut out some time to speak to CNBC Fast Money’s panel on Monday. Asking the million dollar question, CNBC anchor Mellisa Lee queried Lingham, also an investor on South Africa’s Shark Tank, about where BTC could be headed next.
Taking the question in stride, the Civic chief noted that Bitcoin will likely remain range-bound between $3,000 and $5,000 “for a while.”
Giving his claim more specificity, Lingham explained that trading within the aforementioned $2,000-wide range is likely to continue for a minimum of three to six months, a common timeline in the eyes of Bitcoin’s short-term bears. The entrepreneur added that if a convincing breakout isn’t established by the end of Bitcoin’s six-month range, a strong foray under $3,000 wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility.
Another industry insider, Murad Mahamudov, a Princeton grad turned astute crypto analyst, recently claimed that BTC is in the midst of a long-term descending triangle, a bearish trend in other words. Mahamudov notes that if BTC remains in its bearish state, the asset could fall to as low as $3,000 when 2018 comes to a close.
Title Image Courtesy of Andre Francois on Unsplash
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