Bitcoin Could Retest All-Time High In 24 Months
Earlier this year, prior to the recent Bitcoin (BTC) surge to and past $6,000, we reported that Canaccord Genuity Capital Markets, a Vancouver, Canada-based financial services firm, claimed that the leading cryptocurrency could rally to $20,000 by March 2021. At the time, however, this prediction, deemed rather optimistic by some (as then BTC had yet to embark on a bear market recovery), was unbacked, and little was explained.
But, the analysts who made this statement recently broke down this prediction in a research note obtained by CoinDesk. In it, they explained that as it stands Bitcoin’s chart looks eerily similar to the cycle seen from 2011 to 2015. And thus, they noted that if BTC follows its historical trend to a tee, it will see a “slow climb back toward its all-time high of ~$20,000, theoretically reaching that level in March 2021.”
But what exactly will drive this rally? Let’s take a look at what the analysts think is bullish for Bitcoin right now.
- Growing Number of Transactions and On-Chain Value: As the firm observes, the average value of daily transactions (USD) has risen two months in a row, from $479m to $801m, all while the number of transactions has begun to near all-time highs yet again. Data from Diar would confirm this. While the count of BTC transacted on-chain in Q1 of 2019 is the lowest since Q2 of Q3 of 2017, Diar notes that as of the end of April, the U.S. dollar value of BTC and the number of BTC transacted is up three months in a row. For some perspective, in February, $70.5 billion worth of value and 19.1 million BTC were transacted using the Bitcoin blockchain. These same indicators now read $132.6 billion and 25.7 million, respectively — an increase of 88% and 34.5% in a three-month time span.
- Scaling: Over the past few months, there has been an uptick in the growth of the Lightning Network and Segwit. This should help to drive long-term adoption.
- Bitcoin Mining Breakeven Hits $7,200: According to Canaccord’s estimates, the breakeven cost of mining has hit $7,200 for miners paying $0.04/kWh. BTC has historically traded around or above its breakeven level.
- Adoption In Emerging Economies: Bitcoin has seen massive adoption in places like Venezuela, showing a true need for BTC that isn’t just speculative.
- Financialization: The cryptocurrency space has been increasingly financialized over the past few years, as made apparent by an increase in volume for futures products and tradable Bitcoin-backed products.
- Network Value: “Bitcoin looks more “expensive” from an NVT ratio perspective, but still slightly “under-valued” according to Metcalfe’s Law.”
Isn’t, Like, $200,000 Possible?
While I’m sure many would love to see Bitcoin at $20,000, some believe that the asset can head much higher.
One analyst, the self-proclaimed “cryptocurrency accumulation machine” Galaxy, claims that Bitcoin’s current monthly chart looks eerily similar to that seen in late-2015, when BTC finally began to embark on a rally yet again. This is notable, as the last time BTC’s chart structure looked as it did now (a massive green candle after ~one year of selling pressure), what followed was a 6,500% price surge in a two-year time frame. Thus, Galaxy notes that if historical precedent is followed to a tee, a bull run of the previous one’s magnitude will place BTC at over $333,000 per unit by the end of 2021. BTCC’s Bobby Lee (Charlie Lee’s brother), Twitter commentator $carface, Naeem Aslam, and Filb Filb are among other pundits who believe that a move to this level will occur, in a few years’ time no less.
Title Image Courtesy of Aleksi Raisa Via Unsplash